Tag Archives: gruss

Weeks ending 25-09-16

A three week period. Good return on UK dogs, no big jumps/errors, however tails off towards the end but nothing too worrying. The removal of the Australian wallet happened and I didn’t change anything. This led to a stake increase of around 30%. I’ll monitor performance to see if any notable change occurs.

160925

The Aus horses traded well initially with a steady return. Then at point 340, which is at the base of the sharp incline (£20 in 3 days, nice), the Aus wallet was removed (20th Sept). The stake increased approx 4x and the rapid up trend continued through Friday returning to a more gradual return for Saturday/Sunday.

I wondered if other bots may have stopped after the 20th although I don’t know why. No reference to the wallet is made in the code, so bots wouldn’t have direct data of the change. There would have been an increase in balance and some traders may code to pause after sudden unexpected profits, as this could be an indication of an error. It’s worth remembering that the result of an error, profit or loss, is irrelevant. It’s still an error and needs attention to prevent future losses. If other coders are more attentive, then this may explain why I saw some greater returns, with their bots being brought back online for the weekend.

Who knows? Maybe a coincidence.

aus160925

£20 to £300 CHALLENGE!!!

title

I’ve set myself a challenge on the UK greyhounds to get from a starting bank of £20 to £300 in 1 year!

To avoid falling into the trap of setting a challenge and then erasing it from history when it goes pear shaped (like so many others), I kept this beauty quiet for one whole year. I think you can see where I’m going with this. Yes, success (I may have given some clues in my previous posts).

My Oscar has managed to rake in a profit of £286.57 on the UK dogs after commission. Added to the starting bank of £20, I’ve smashed the challenge target, ending with a balance of £306.57, kerching.

1-year

Details if chart is poor –

  • Markets traded = 18,179
  • Settled bets = 136,482
  • Traded volume = £555,831.90
  • P&L = £286.57
  • Return on traded volume = 0.052%

 

Weeks ending 04-09-16

Oscar (UK) has had a month of trading without me interfering and has produced another pleasant chart with a nice profit to show (0.11%).

160904

Over the same period, with an equal amount of input from me, Aus Oscar has managed a profit too, 76p. For international visitors, that’s 1.33 Aus dollar, 1.01 US Dollar, 0.91 Euro, 0.0017 Bitcoin, 0.99 Swiss Franc, etc. Still, it’s positive. The large drop was down to two lays going unmatched (Lapsed). However, I smell a technical issue as the race was due off at 08:05 but the bets were settled at 09:05. Usually Aus bets are settled within 5 minutes. Also they are the only Lapsed bets in the last 3 months. Some more digging may find the answer. And a polite email to Betfair.

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SLAYR – still going

I’d said in a comment that I was likely to stop Slayr due to results and it was never meant to be a bot anyway (see here). However, in my usual “everything-takes-forever-to-do” mode of operation, it’s been left running. I’ve also adjusted stakes twice, raising both times, with my bank currently around where it started. Sitting at the computer listing my car on eBay, I soon drifted onto the betting and, after some time wrestling with the poor file format from Betdaq, I got this chart using a level stake and accounting for 5% commission –

Story so far

Pleasantly surprised was my reaction. I will now change the stake, once more, to a percentage of bank and starting around the current level. I’ll also set the minimum balance stop to 1.5 times the down trend seen mid chart (as it’s the largest down run in this chart), approximately 14x stake.

Week ending 31-07-16

The UK dogs have produced a lovely chart and there was increased activity. I wondered if the stake size might be a reason for this (thinking it could fall between baiters) but it didn’t produce this picture of beauty when it was last at this level. I will note this current stake and come back to it if things turn bad.

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The Aus horses continued their choppy trend, ending positive this week. From around the 130 point I changed the entry settings (as mentioned in the previous post), restricting market participation and liability. The impact of this is inconclusive from the evidence.

Aus160731

Overall a good return, seeing enough profit to more than cover my monthly costs.

Weeks ending 24-07-16

After a slow start to the period (2 weeks), the UK dogs got into a good trend. The overall positive direction has continued from the restart in late June.

160724

The Aus markets are not doing as well. Looking back over previous charts there is noticeably more variance than on the UK dogs. I am going to respond to this by limiting the parameters before entering market. This will reduce my number of bets but hopefully increase profit (I have done a small amount of back checking to support this).

Aus160724

Some stats

Here are some stats from when I started in September 2015 to now.

Stats July 16

An overall PL/TV of 0.042%.

The number of markets my bot has monitored is probably double the amount it has traded in. Also the number of bets placed will by higher than those settled as I use a fill/kill.

Something else I was thinking about is how Betfair talk about the amount of money they match in events such as the Euros etc. When you place a £10 bet it is recorded as £20 matched, so including the opposite stake. My £600K would be £1,200,000, approximately. But this is done with a bank of a couple of hundred quid. So I wonder how much actual money is used to trade the millions on horses and football every week? Probably only a small proportion of the final “matched” figure.

Week ending 10-07-16

With the UK dogs restricted to higher volume markets, activity remains low compared to previous periods. Both markets ended positive with good ratios.

If trend is kept I’ll step the UK stake up to where it was previously. Currently it is just over £3 where it had been over £7.

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The Aus stake has climbed around 30%, due to profit, but still well below the point that caused the turnover charge warning. That was back in February, I’d planned to code around the events where the charge is applicable but haven’t yet.

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My bot data

I was asked about my data here and here. This is the data I collect:-

MyDataExample

My bot collects data from each opening trade placed, attempted opening trade (unmatched) and when the market meets approx 90% criteria. The trigger includes a stoploss and tick-offset which are fired in response to the market so I don’t have any data relating to the point that they are placed.

I also record market suspension to help with analysis. I don’t record any other data about the market. If no trades are made in a market, I have no data.

The columns are as follows-

MyDataExample2

A = Market

B = Market ID

C = Time at last refresh

D = Seconds to off

E = Selection name

MyDataExample3

F thru Q = Best 3 back/lay prices (F,H,J,L,N,P) and volumes (G,I,K,M,O,Q)

MyDataExample4

R = Last price matched

S = Total matched for this selection

T = Trigger

U = My requested price

V = My stake

W = Total matched for this market

X = Timer output (time it takes for my code to run using excel’s timer)

The problem with data is how much is available. I’ve tried recording whole markets but you soon end up with megabytes of data that means nothing without refining. You first need an idea of what you want to find and then go about collecting the relevant data. For instance, I only record the data for my selection, not the other runners. You may only need data for the last 3 minutes before off, or only in-play, depending on how you want to trade. You could record prices in the morning and then at the off to look for trends. Without knowing what you want to target, data on its own is not much use. Because my data is so specific to my bot, it wont be any use to others without knowing the algorithm that picked it out.

EDIT:- below is a file of data recorded from one race. As Gruss passes the market to excel, I recorded each refresh to a sheet for each race. I only did it for a few days due to the size of the files. It’s about 280KB and taken from a day file which was 150MB in size.

recorded-data-to-share1